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Lewis Hamilton to Ferrari. Why?
3 years ago
Reports suggest Wolff was blindsided by Hamilton's decision
And now to have the rug so calamitously pulled out from under it, to be sent sprawling and by someone whose loyalty was presumed a given and who had just signed a new two-year contract? Well, I can barely imagine the look on Toto’s face now, let alone what’s actually being felt behind it.
The most obvious problem is how to replace Hamilton, but here Toto is, for want of a better phrase, in luck. Of the 20 drivers on the grid, a staggering 14 are out of contract at the end of this year, so he can have any driver from the Aston Martin, Sauber, Williams, Haas, Alpine and whatever Alpha Tauri is calling itself this week teams, plus Sergio Perez and, of course, Carlos Sainz. Only Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc and the McLaren boys are off limits. Surely the first call would be to Fernando Alonso?
But before any of that, there is a more immediate situation to address. First, how did Lewis get out of a two-year deal barely before the ink had dried on the contract and, far more importantly, why? The most likely answer to the first is that Lewis had a break clause in the agreement. The second part of the question is fascinating.
"Lewis is going to have to outscore Charles Leclerc who is already known to be among the quickest of the quick but also, at 26, is probably still getting better. Few would say the same about any driver of Hamilton’s age"
For it is not as if Lewis and Ferrari have not spoken before. He has himself said on more than one occasion he would never rule out driving a red car. He quite liked the idea. But nothing had ever come of it. So why now? I simply don’t believe it’s just because Ferrari dangled a sum of money even Lewis Hamilton could not turn away. He is already unfeasibly wealthy, and being not just a sporting icon but a walking, talking fashion brand, is likely to go on being that way for the rest of his days, wherever he spends them.
Inexorably one is drawn toward the suspicion that something else has been added to his desire to drive for Ferrari, a catalyst that made the prospect too tempting to refuse. Could that be a desire to no longer be at Mercedes?
What if – and I speculate freely, wildly but honestly here – Lewis fundamentally disagrees with the way Mercedes has gone with this year’s all-new car, and therefore next year’s car which will almost certainly be a development because no one’s going to start again with a massive rule change due in 2026? What if he near enough knows he’s not going to win another title if he stays, but that he just might if he goes?
"Do you wonder, like me, if Ferrari has not given him an idea of what they’re thinking? Surely they must? And perhaps they have something, like Mercedes had its ‘split turbo’ engine in 2014 that gave it the legs over its rivals for years to come"
For make no mistake, that is his motivation. I’m sure, like every driver who has ever raced in Formula 1, he’d love to drive for Ferrari, and particularly now when it is suffering its longest ever title-free streak. Like Michael Schumacher in 1996, he could take the world’s greatest racing brand at its very lowest point, and spearhead its triumphant return to the top. Think what kind of legacy that would leave!
But actually? I think if it meant an eighth title, Lewis would drive a shopping trolley. A title that would lift him clear of the mark he and Michael have shared since 2020, a title that would establish him as the no-brain, slam-dunk, gilt-edged goatiest GOAT of all time. And will he get that at Mercedes, with whom he has not won a race since 2021? I think it’s fair to assume he thinks he won’t.
Whether he is right to assume that is, of course, an entirely different question. We all look at Michael’s talismanic stint at the Scuderia and think the same could transpire for Lewis. But Michael would be the first to say he did not act alone, and without Ross Brawn and Rory Byrne and Jean Todt it would never have happened. Remember too that he won his first title in a Ferrari in his fifth season there. It’s easier being older in F1 these days, but Lewis will be in his 40s before he completes a single lap in anger in a Ferrari. He simply doesn’t have the time.
Remember he will have little influence over the Ferrari he drives next year because it will have to be designed and its core philosophy signed off before he arrives, so my guess is he’s hanging his hat on the 2026 season and the brand new rulebook that comes with it.
So do you wonder, like me, if Ferrari has not given him an idea of what they’re thinking? Surely they must? And perhaps they have something, like Mercedes had its ‘split turbo’ engine in 2014 that gave it the legs over its rivals for years to come. Perhaps it’s the promise of a game-changing car that has prompted Lewis’ volte face. If it is, it will be a rarity from the Scuderia whose greatest achievements in racing have never been built on the back of transformative innovation.
It is hard to escape the conclusion that, for whatever reason, of all the options available to him (given that Max is hardly going put up with him on the other side of the garage) it all just boils down to him simply believing a move to Ferrari gives him his best shot at that elusive eighth title.
For his part, Hamilton has described leaving Mercedes as ‘one of the hardest decisions I have ever had to make. But the time is right for me to take this step and I’m excited to be taking on a new challenge. I am 100% committed to delivering the best performance I can this season and making my last year with the Silver Arrows one to remember.’
Can we perhaps learn something from history? Probably not. Since the dawn of Formula 1 some 74 years ago, 11 British drivers have started at least one World Championship Grand Prix in a factory Ferrari, but of these just five won races for the team – Mike Hawthorn, Peter Collins, John Surtees, Nigel Mansell and Eddie Irvine, of whom three won titles while at Ferrari. But no British driver has driven for Ferrari in Formula 1 this century.
Lewis will be the next, but will he be Ferrari’s next F1 champion too? Well, to do that Ferrari is first going to have to produce a corker of a car, and second, learn how to keep it that way and make the most of it for an entire season, something it has not been noted for doing in recent times. And then Lewis is going to have to outscore Charles Leclerc who is already known to be among the quickest of the quick but also, at 26, is probably still getting better. Few would say the same about any driver of Hamilton’s age.
Come what may, it’s going to be such a fascinating contest that sitting out 2024 waiting for it to come around while Max cleans up again – for that seems overwhelmingly likely to me – is going to be a painful business, like waiting for a storm to break. But the prize – the most successful driver in the history of F1 driving for its most successful team – has got to be worth the wait. Unless, of course, your name is Toto Wolff.
